Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate change

Abstract Climate-driven redistribution of tuna threatens to disrupt the economies Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and sustainable management world’s largest fishery. Here we show that by 2050, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), total biomass three species in waters ten SIDS could decline an average 13% (range = −5% −20%) due greater proportion fish occurring seas. The potential implications for 2050 include purse-seine catch 20% −10% −30%), annual loss regional tuna-fishing access fees US$90 million −US$40 –US$140 million) reductions government revenue up −8% −17%) individual SIDS. Redistribution lower-emissions 4.5) is projected reduce from only 3% −12% +9%), indicating even emissions, line with Paris Agreement, would provide pathway sustainability tuna-dependent economies. An additional involves negotiating within fisheries organization maintain present-day benefits they receive tuna, regardless effects climate change on distribution fish.